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The Kahuna's 2009 World Championship Prognostication

Nobody on the planet has been to more XTERRA Championship events than the managing director of the XTERRA World Tour - "Kahuna Dave" Nicholas.  Having been to every World Championship race in Maui since creating the sport back in 1996, and having been onsite to see this years races unfold all over the world - the Kahuna is more than qualified to speculate on who might win it all this year.  That doesn't mean he'll get it right, in fact, he's hardly ever right (just 2 for 14 in picking winners over the last seven years).  So, with a grain of salt, but some tasty insight nonetheless, here are the Kahuna's '09 Maui prognostications:
 
The more things change, the more they stay the same.  Every year our field gets stronger and faster.  2009 is no exception. The top 10 women from 2008 are all back and 9 out of 10 men. And neither of our 3 time champs Mel McQuaid or Conrad Stoltz were inside the top 10 last year.

We have a chance for history as Julie Dibens could be the first to win 3-in-a-row. A lot of big-time athletes have tried, but none have done it. 

Spanish Mountain bike racer Ruben Ruzafa will be back to reclaim his Championship.  Ruben led the Italian XTERRA this year until Franky Batelier (pictured) chased him down on the run.  The strongest person on paper has to be the Frenchman.  Batelier swept the Euro Tour this year winning every race.  Last year at Maui he was 3rd coming off the bike, but was suffering from sciatica damage and faded on the run.  His problems are behind him and Franky will be strong.  Nico Lebrun dominated the last half of the USA season and knows Maui well.  Conrad Stoltz was blitzing his way through 2009 before a huge cut in his foot at Richmond sidetracked him.  He has had time to recover and will be ready to go for his 4th title. 

We will add mtb specialist and Canadian Olympian Marie-Helene Premont who will try and duplicate what Ruzafa and Michi Weiss did last year;  prove that the strong biker can overcome the swim/run of the triathlete.  Renata Bucher won the Euro title this year plus Malaysia and Saipan.  She is stronger than ever and wants Maui badly after tasting the podium with a 4th last year.  South Africa and Czech champion Carina Wasle is training in Colorado and looked good at the USA championship race. Shonny Vanlandingham has had a great year with wins on the USA Tour and in Mexico.  Living on the Big Island will have her ready for the Maui heat; she had the fastest bike time last year and is swimming and running a lot better.  Little Lesley Patterson is ready to get on the podium and we must never, ever leave out Danelle Kabush who simply shines at Maui and was 2nd last year and in 2006.

Olivier Marceau is back and looking for that elusive win after so many 2nds, Mike Vine has led Maui and is a consistent podium finisher; Josiah Middaugh is healthy and motivated.  Seth Wealing, Sam Gardner, Richard Ussher and Rom Akerson all won XTERRA National Champ races this year.  Eneko Llanos is back after Ironman, Olympian Brent McMahon is entered, and both are very fast.  Whew – what a field and how do we pick ‘em?

I’ll go with history and say Julie can’t get her third in a row.  I see a battle with Mel, Renata and Shonny chasing the big Brit out of the water.  Danelle and Lesley making up minutes on the run.

The wild card?  What can we expect from Marie-Helene?  Can she shred the gals on the bike and hold them off on the run?

Ruben will be strong but he will, once again, have to come from behind.  I see Brent McMahon, Batelier and Olivier in the lead early with Conrad and Mike Vine catching them and everyone knowing that Ruben is back there along with Austrian Michi Weiss.  They will not take it easy this year.

At the end I have to go with Batelier and McQuaid.  If Conrad keeps his equipment together he will be tough to beat and if Julie stays healthy and rides like she did last year – she will change history.